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US Dollar Faces High Volatility

The Dollar will find itself burdened with anticipation through the first half of this coming week for an explosion over the second half of the period. No surprise, technical progress will be influenced by the Fed decision.

US DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:

  • The Dollar has shown a climb in volatility lately, but that hasn’t translated into clear direction
  • An attempt to retake two-year highs by DXY fell short thanks to extreme EURUSD volatility
  • Wednesday’s Fed decision will raise expectations for volatility and in turn curb progress before it

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TECHNICAL FORECAST FOR US DOLLAR: NEUTRAL

The US Dollar has shown an increase in activity these past weeks, but that hasn’t exactly translated into a more productive trend from the benchmark currency. In fact, the familiar chop that has been the hallmark of this currency over the past year is still readily apparent on higher time frame charts such as the weekly or monthly. Yet, sustained and/or rising volatility does not typically abide strict technical boundaries well. With a key event risk on the docket in the coming week (the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT), perhaps we will see more active market participants align their views.

Starting our overview of the Greenback, it is worth looking at the most popular view of the currency with the trade-weighted DXY Index. This is the perspective that US President Donald Trump takes with the heavy weighting towards EURUSD drawing greater scrutiny of its general altitude at a two-year high – even if it is not showing consistent progress with its ‘two steps forward, one step back’ pace. The peak at the start of September is the highest for the measure since May 2017, but we have failed to retest this past week. We could potentially call the peak in the beginning of August and this past week’s – both punctuated by large upper wicks – as ‘shoulders’ on a dramatic head-and-shoulders pattern, but congestion tends to make such structures unreliable as reversal signals.

read more: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/15/US-Dollar-Faces-High-Volatility-but-Unpredictable-Direction-with-Fed-Decision.html

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